as tragedy, if not farce.

Why am I sure? because as I look more at the recent Arab history, it is clear that anything less than domination is weakness/ submission.

Saddam thought, and advertisized, that he WON Gulf I. The WTC was bombed before. Other US embassies were bombed. It was ugly, and it got worse.

How can anybody be sure of the future? Nobody can, just put out probabilities on some possible outcomes.
Like outcomes, with some "value" of that outcome:
a) Hussein develops & supplies terrorists with such weapons in the next 5 years (-10 000 -50 000)
b) Hussein has or develops WMDs, but doesn't supply other terrorits (-1 000 - 50 000)
c) Hussein doesn't have and doesn't develop WMDs
(-50 000)
d) US enforces regime change ( -5 000)

Obviously, you and I might well disagree on the number of civilians murdered by Hussein in the future; I estimate 10 000/ year = -50 000. You may well have a different value.


Then look at two cases, after 1441, noting the probabilities:
Attack or Not Attack (A or NA):

a) A - 0% NA - 10%
b) A - 0% NA - 40%
c) A - 0% NA - 50%
d) A - 100% NA - 0%

Expected value -- MUCH better for attack in terms of civilians killed, depending on the chose outcome levels, and probabilities.